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چکیده
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Climate change and human activities have led to the degradation of habitats where medicinal plants grow. In the Middle East, Ferulago angulata, F. carduchorum, and F. phialocarpa are widely recognized as valuable plants used for culinary, medicinal, and economic purposes. Therefore, this study aimed to model these Ferulago species in Iran using the MaxEnt model under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for the years 2050 and 2070. The objective was to identify the crucial bioclimatic (n = 6), edaphic (n = 4), and topographic (n = 3) variables that influence their distribution and predict how their distribution might change under various climate scenarios. The findings revealed that the Slope percentage was the most significant variable affecting F. angulata and F. carduchorum. In the case of F. phialocarpa, solar radiation was the primary influencing factor. The MaxEnt modeling demonstrated good to excellent performance, as indicated by all the Area ander the curve (AUC) values exceeding 0.85. Based on the projections, both F. angulata and F. carduchorum are expected to undergo negative area changes in the coming years. Conversely, F. phialocarpa is anticipated to experience the highest increase in potential habitat. These results can serve as a valuable tool for developing adaptive management strategies aimed at enhancing protection and sustainable utilization in the context of global climate change. Special attention should be given to conserving F. angulata and F. carduchorum, considering their significant habitat loss in the future.
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