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چکیده
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Over the course of a few decades, climate change has caused a rapid and alarming reshaping of species habitats, resulting in mass extinction, particularly among sensitive species. In order to investigate the efects of climate change on species distribution and assess habitat suitability, researchers have developed species distribution models (SDMs) that estimate present and future species distribution. In West Asia, thyme species such as T. fedtschenkoi, T. pubescens, and T. transcaucasicus are rich in thymol and carvacrol, and are commonly used as herbal tea, spice, favoring agents, and medicinal plants. This study aims to model the distribution of these Thymus species in Iran using the MaxEnt model under two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) for the years 2050 and 2070. The objective is to identify the crucial bioclimatic (n= 5), edaphic (n= 1), and topographic (n= 3) variables that infuence their distribution and predict how their distribution might change under various climate scenarios. The fndings reveal that the most signifcant variable afecting T. fedtschenkoi and T. pubescens is altitude, while soil organic carbon content is the primary factor infuencing the distribution of T. transcaucasicus. The MaxEnt modeling demonstrates excellent performance, as indicated by all the area under the curve (AUC) values exceeding 0.9. Based on the projections, it is expected that these three thyme species will experience negative area changes in the coming years. These results can serve as a valuable tool for developing adaptive management strategies aimed at enhancing protection and sustainable utilization in the context of global climate change. Special attention should be given to conserving T. fedtschenkoi, T. pubescens, and T. transcaucasicus due to their signifcant habitat loss in the future.
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