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چکیده
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One of the most important consequences of climate change is its impacts on water resources. Evaluation of adaptation strategies to cope with this phenomenon is an essential action, which construct the objectives of the present research work. For this, the uncertainties of 7 AOGCM models with A2 emission are evaluated for the Zayandeh Rud basin during two future periods (i.e. 2010-2039 and 2070-2099) and probability distributions of possible changes on rainfall and temperature are estimated. Similarly, impacts of these changes are evaluated on water resources and agricultural decision indices (e.g. water supply, crop yield, irrigation demand and water use efficiency). Furthermore, DSSAT package is applied to assess different adaptation strategies at the field level. These strategies include changing cultivar, increasing irrigation efficiency, planting dates and deficit irrigation. Also, trans-boundry water project and changing dam operation are the evaluated strategies at basin level. To apply these strategies with respect to integrated water resources management paradigm, an allocation water model are developed, too. The results show that changing cultivar and water transfer would have higher positive impacts on the decision indices.
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