Given the escalating environmental degradation and public health concerns resulting from severe air pollution in Iran, this study presents a comprehensive assessment of historical trends and future projections of air pollutant emissions. Focusing on key greenhouse gases (CO2 and CH4) and air pollutants (NO2 and SO2), the research employs Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), and the innovative Pattern Mining Engine (PME) model. Covering the period from 1960 to 2100, the study identifies pivotal trends and key change points in emission trajectories. The analysis reveals significant surges in CO2 and NO2 emissions, particularly during the late 1980s and mid-1990s, driven by socio-economic transitions and policy shifts. PME projections highlight a sharp increase in CO2 emissions from 96.6 to 359.08 Mt, and a substantial rise in NO2 emissions under the RCP1.9 scenario from 10.44 to 68.48 Mt. Similarly, SO2 emissions experienced notable growth, with critical inflection points in the late 1980s and mid-1990s, while CH4 emissions exhibited variable patterns, reflecting divergent source behaviors and mitigation measures. Future projections offer a nuanced perspective on potential emission pathways, indicating significant reductions in CH4 and SO2 under SSP1 and SSP5 scenarios, contrasted with continued increases under SSP3 and SSP4 due to slower technological progress. Despite the implementation of ambitious climate policies, the anticipated CO2 reductions of 23–29 % by 2050 remain insufficient to meet climate targets, underscoring persistent challenges in aligning policy aspirations with tangible outcomes. Sectoral analyses further identify the industrial sector as a major contributor to NO2 and SO2 emissions, although SSP1 and SSP5 scenarios foresee marked declines by 2100, driven by cleaner technologies and stricter regulatory measures. This study distinguishes itself through its comprehensive analysis of emission dynamics across multiple scenarios and its critical insights into the effectiveness of various mitigation strategies. The findings emphasize the urgent need for more aggressive, integrated approaches to emission control and climate policy to effectively address rising pollutant levels and curb environmental degradation.
