The increasing mortality of trees in forests worldwide is a complex phenomenon with unclear causes, often associated with climate-related stressors such as rising temperatures, drought, pests, and diseases. These factors have direct and indirect effects on ecosystem functioning, including reduced primary productivity and alterations in nutrient and biogeochemical cycles [1]. Iran, located in the Irano-Turanian region—characterized by arid and semi-arid climates with mild to cold winters—hosts two major forest regions: the Hyrcanian forests in the north and the Zagros forests in the west. In recent years, the Zagros forests, dominated by Persian oak (Quercus brantii Lindl), have experienced a significant decline. This study aims to support the conservation and restoration of this valuable ecosystem by identifying key climatic and edaphic factors influencing the distribution of this species using the Maxent model [2]. Results showed that among the 38 variables analyzed, slope, precipitation of the coldest quarter (BIO19), and bedrock depth had the highest influence on Persian oak distribution. Slope was the most influential factor (37.7%) due to its effects on water flow, soil aeration, and moisture distribution. Precipitation of the coldest quarter (35.2%) was also significant, affecting water availability during this critical period. Other influential factors included bedrock depth (9.7%), precipitation of the driest month (BIO14) (7.1%), and precipitation seasonality (BIO15) (4.9%). These findings demonstrate that climatic and environmental variables have varying impacts on the growth and stability of Persian oak and provide valuable insights for natural resource management, forestry, and ecosystem restoration and conservation planning.
