Predicting reservoir performance in the future is closely related to the accurate identification of reservoir history in the past. In this study, based on a new approach, risk zonation in hydrocarbon reservoirs has been evaluated using different available data include well production, characteristics of fractures and faults, rock heterogeneity and seismic data, which can be used in the field of reservoir management. This study is carried out on Mishrif formation in Sirri oil fields. The well test results have been used in the period between 1977 and 1992, and permeability in the drainage area of all production wells have been calculated by applying an empirical relationship between wellhead pressure and permeability. By calculating the permeability in the production wells, the strain values, which represent the compaction parameter, are estimated based on the permeability-strain empirical relationships. Strain value is considered us an important parameter for predicting the future oil production rate. In this study, the effect of different parameters on strain distribution such as fault effects, characteristics of reservoir fractures, rock heterogeneity and rock density have also been investigated. Based on the obtained strain results, all existing wells have been classified into three different regions including region A (referred to high rate of volumetric strain), region B (referred to moderate rate of volumetric strain), and region C (referred to low level of volumetric strain), which can be used for the future performance of the wells and for making accurate decisions regarding better management of Mishrif formation reservoir in Sirri oil field.
