2024 : 5 : 11
Mahnoush Moghaddasi

Mahnoush Moghaddasi

Academic rank: Associate Professor
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4933-6501
Education: PhD.
ScopusId: 14019976700
Faculty: Agriculture and Environment
Address: Arak University
Phone:

Research

Title
Estimation of non-stationary return levels of extreme temperature by CMIP6 models
Type
JournalPaper
Keywords
climate change, extreme temperature, Iran, non-stationary analysis, return period
Year
2024
Journal Water Practice & Technology
DOI
Researchers Tayybeh Mohammadi ، Mahnoush Moghaddasi ، dedighe anvari ، Rizvan Aziz

Abstract

This study aims to investigate the effects of climate change on return level of extreme maximum temperature (EMT) events in Iran. To this end, the CRU gridded dataset was used to collect EMT for the 1901–2014 period and future data were projected from four available CMIP6 models, where the BCC-CSM2-MR performed best under the latest Shared Socioeconomic Path- ways-Representative concentration pathways (SSPs-RCPs) emission scenarios for the 2015–2100 period. The non-stationary state of the distribution was considered under three models GEV0 (location and scale parameters are constant), GEV1 (non- stationary of location), and GEV2 (nonstationary of scale) based on the evaluation criteria . The findings indicate that, when using a non-stationary approach and considering the SSP5-8.5 scenario for a 2-year return period, the return level of extreme temperature increased by up to þ4°C compared with the stationary approach, while considering a non-stationary approach without climate change, the increase in the return level of extreme temperature was much smaller(up to þ0.7°C). MCMC and DE-MC showed no significant differences and demonstrated that all stations are non-stationary in terms of the location par- ameter (GEV1).